Description

SPECIAL ISSUE: COVID-19: A HOLISTIC INSIGHT

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 pandemic has jolted the entire world by infecting approximately 10 million and killing 0.5 million people worldwide till 25th June, 2020. India has reported 0.473 million infections and 14.89 thousand deaths till 25th June, 2020. We have witnessed the most widespread lockdown in the human history. The present study depicts an economic evaluation of COVID-19 lockdown (25th March to 25th June) in India. It is a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) encompassing an excel based decision tree model delineating the comparison of ‚lockdown intervention scenario‛ with ‚no lockdown scenario‛. We have incorporated only the medical treatment costs of COVID-19 that are estimated by using top to bottom cost calculation approach. The epidemiological forecasting methodology has been utilized for deciphering the COVID-19 Point Prevalence without lockdown. The actual Point Prevalence is collected from MOHFW data. Our analysis limns that the overall medical treatment cost of 47305 COVID-19 patients in India is approximately INR 79.1 Billion in the current scenario of lockdown which could have been INR 2.82 Trillion without lockdown as 84.7 million people would have been infected till 25th June. The nation-wide lockdown has helped India to save INR 2.74 Trillion of the medical treatment costs in the period of 25th March to 25th June 2020 on COVID-19 patients which is equal to 1.86% of Indian GDP measured by using Indian GDP of FY2019-20 at current prices as the basis of calculation.

 Keywords: COVID-19, Economic Evaluation, Economic Impact, Point Prevalence, Epidemiology